Slime trails
In his 2000 book, Which Lie Did I Tell?, the late, great screenwriter William Goldman called the brilliant 1963 Stanley Donen movie Charade a "money-loser". Oh, sure, it was a great success - for itself. But it cost Hollywood hundreds of millions of dollars in failed attempts to copy its magical romantic-comedy-adventure-thriller mixture. (Goldman's own version, 1992's The Year of the Comet, was - his words - "a flop".) In this sense, Amazon may be the most expensive company ever launched in Silicon Valley because it encouraged everyone to believe losing money in 17 of its first 18 years doesn't matter.
Uber has been playing up this comparison in the run-up to its May 2019 IPO. However, two things make it clear the comparison is false. First - duh - losing money just isn't a magical sign of a good business, even in the Internet era. Second, Amazon had scale on its side, as well as a pioneering infrastructure it was able later to monetize. Nothing about transport scales, as Hubert Horan laid out in 2017; even municipalities can't make Uber cheaper than public transit. Horan's analysis of Uber's IPO filing is scathing. Investment advisers love to advise investing in companies that make popular products, but *not this time*.
Meanwhile, network externalities abound. The Guardian highlights the disparity between Uber's drivers, who have been striking this week, and its early investors, who will make billions even while the company says it intends to continue slicing drivers' compensation. The richest group, says the New York Times, have already decamped to lower-tax states.
If Horan is right, however, the impending shift of billions of dollars from drivers and greater fools to already-wealthy early investors will arguably be a regulatory failure on the part of the Securities and Exchange Commission. I know the rule of the stock market is "buyer beware", but without the trust conferred by regulators there will *be* no buyers, not even pension funds. Everyone needs government to ensure fair play.
Somewhere in one of his 500-plus books, the science/fiction writer Isaac Asimov commented that he didn't like to fly because in case of a plane crash his odds of survival were poor. "It's not sporting." In fact, most passengers survive, unharmed, but not, obviously, in the recent Boeing crashes. Blame, as Madeline Elish correctly predicted in her paper on moral crumple zones, is being sprayed widely, particularly among the humans who build and operate these things: faulty sensors, pilots, and software issues.
The reality seems more likely to be a perfect storm comprising numerous components: 1) the same kind of engineering-management disconnect that doomed Challenger in 1986, 2) trying to compensate with software for a hardware problem, 3) poorly thought-out cockpit warning light design, 4) the number and complexity of vendors involved, and 5) receding regulators. As hybrid cyber-physical systems become more pervasive, it seems likely we will see many more situations where small decisions made by different actors will collide to create catastrophes, much like untested drug interactions.
Again, regulatory failure is the most alarming. Any company can screw up. The failure of any complex system can lead to companies all blaming each other. There are always scapegoats. But in an industry where public perception of safety is paramount, regulators are crucial in ensuring trust. The flowchart at the Seattle Times says it all about how the FAA has abdicated its responsibility. It's particularly infuriating because many in the cybersecurity industry cite aviation as a fine example of what an industry can do to promote safety and security when the parties recognize their collective interests are best served by collaborating and sharing data. Regulators who audit and test provide an essential backstop.
The 6% of the world that flies relies on being able to trust regulators to ensure their safety. Even if the world's airlines now decide that they can't trust the US system, where are they going to go for replacement aircraft? Their own governments will have to step in where the US is failing, as the EU already does in privacy and antitrust. Does the environment win, if people decide it's too risky to fly? Is this a plan?
I want regulators to work. I want to be able to fly with reasonable odds of survival, have someone on the job to detect financial fraud, and be able to trust that medical devices are safe. I don't care how smart you are, no consumer can test these things for themselves, any more than we can tell if a privacy policy is worth the electrons it's printed on.
On that note, last week on Twitter Demos researcher Carl Miller, author of The Death of the Gods, made one of his less-alarming suggestions. Let's replace "cookie": "I'm willing to bet we'd be far less willing to click yes, if the website asked if we [are] willing to have a 'slime trail', 'tracking beacon' or 'surveillance agent' on our browser."
I like "slime trail", which extends to cover the larger use of "cookie" in "cookie crumbs" to describe the lateral lists that show the steps by which you arrived at the current page. Now, when you get a targeted ad, people will sympathize as you shout, "I've been slimed!"
Illustrations: Bill Murray, slimed in Ghostbusters (1984).
Wendy M. Grossman is the 2013 winner of the Enigma Award. Her Web site has an extensive archive of her books, articles, and music, and an archive of earlier columns in this series. Stories about the border wars between cyberspace and real life are posted occasionally during the week at the net.wars Pinboard - or follow on Twitter.